Here it is, the first guest-authored post on my blog! Really, this post comes from an e-mail that a friend sent to me. It involves one of the most divisive debates in the sporting world: who should be admitted to The National Baseball Hall of Fame. We both hope to get comments from any other readers with opinions on the subject.
Here it is: Special to The Weiled West:
Hall of Fame, by Les:
Essential "locks" for Cooperstown:
Rickey Henderson LF
Roger Clemens P
Ken Griffey Jr. CF
Greg Maddux P
Pedro Martinez P
Randy Johnson P
Mariano Rivera RP
Most likely already in:
Roberto Alomar 2B
Craig Biggio 2B
Jeff Kent 2B
Mike Piazza C
Ivan Rodriguez C
Derek Jeter SS
Alex Rodriguez SS/3B
Tom Glavine P
Trevor Hoffman RP
Would go in, but steroids issue is hurting:
Mark McGwire 1B
Barry Bonds LF
Sammy Sosa RF
Rafael Palmeiro 1B
Little bit more and they're in, barring issues with era:
Albert Pujols 1B
Carlos Delgado 1B
Jim Thome 1B
Scott Rolen 3B
Manny Ramirez LF
Andruw Jones CF
Vladimir Guerrero RF
Curt Schilling P
John Smoltz P
Billy Wagner RP
Well on their way:
Alfonso Soriano 2B/LF/CF
Ichiro Suzuki RF
Roy Halladay P
Johan Santana P
Hall of Fame start, but a long way to go:
Brian McCann C
Joe Mauer C
Victor Martinez C
Ryan Howard 1B
Chase Utley 2B
Miguel Cabrera 3B
David Wright 3B
Jose Reyes SS
Carl Crawford LF
Jason Bay LF
Chris Carpenter P
Carlos Zambrano P
Roy Oswalt P
Interesting Discussions:
Todd Helton 1B (Coors Field Inflation)
Omar Vizquel SS (Defense got Ozzie in)
David Ortiz DH (Very clutch, but still a DH)
Could Make a Claim:
Jason Varitek C (Good offense as a catcher, lots of intangibles at a position where it counts)
Miguel Tejada SS (Era could really hurt, along with accusations)
Chipper Jones 3B (On lots of division winners, won MVP)
Frank Thomas 1B/DH (Once the most feared hitter in baseball, late career surge last year)
Mike Mussina P (Good numbers in steroid era)
Jeff Bagwell 1B (Compares very favorably to previous HofFers, but era issues could hurt)
Barry Larkin SS (Often forgotten, great defensive player and very solid offensively)
Has the Talent Potential:
Travis Hafner DH
Derrek Lee 1B
Lance Berkman 1B
Grady Sizemore CF
Carlos Beltran CF
Vernon Wells CF
Brandon Webb P
Ben Sheets P
Okay, so let me know if you think I nailed a guy or if I'm nuts. Before you say I'm nuts though definitely think position and influence on their era. I haven't really taken into account steroid suspicion of pitchers and I am assuming that the voters will come to understand the value of a closer. Let me know what you think, and think of anyone I'm missing.
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7 comments:
A few names jumped out at me as being potentially questionable. I just don't see Pedro as a mortal lock to go in yet - he needs a few more wins, so I'd put him in the most likely category. The same is true of Rivera. My main concern there is that I feel Hall voters may never appreciate the modern closer. Still, if any should get props, Rivera is the man due to his postseason ERA.
Trevor Hoffman again would be my main complaint in the most likely category. Lee Smith was formerly the career saves leader, and he hasn't had a whiff of Cooperstown yet.
The steroids issue will absolutely kill several players for a while, adn I think you have the right guys pegged.
The era issues will be a big hurdle for some players, and most especially Delgado and Thome. Only Thome has led his league in homers, I think, and did it just once. The Hall only has so much room for the Eddie Murrays of the world. Their career numbers are large, but they might have to get all the way to 550-600 homers to have a decent shot. My closer question again applies to Wagner (if Gossage gets in, this all changes).
Only one more comment. I think that Soriano's a bit too old to be making his Hall push now. Couple that with his playing of several positions, and he will have to play like an All-Star past age 40 (which he may well do).
If you compare Pedro's numbers to Sandy Koufax they've played essentially the same amount with Pedro getting the edge in every category. Some people would say Koufax is one of the five greatest pitchers of all-time. I think that people sometimes forget just how good Pedro was at the top of his game. Unstoppable; better than Santana is today. Although I agree that the career numbers don't look like a mortal lock.
As for Hoffman, I agree that this depends on how voters begin viewing the closer (also Wagner) but I think that Hoffman actually compares favorably to Lee Smith. Not just saves but he has been much more consistent than Smith was at a time when we better understand the role of a closer.
Rivera has to be in, not just regular season, but as is mentioned the postseason is unbelievable. I don't think anyone would disagree with the statement that he's the greatest closer of all-time, and we have a couple of closers in, so I think that puts him in.
Soriano is difficult, but he puts up very unique numbers with his combination of HRs, 2Bs, SBs, etc.
Delgado, Thome will be interesting.
Any thoughts on someone not listed?
Well, I should have been more specific about Pedro. I think he's this close to being in, I'm talking 25 more wins or so, just to prove he still had something near the end of his career, even though he ought to go in anyway.
I was thinking about Chipper, Miggy, and Thomas, then I realized you already listed them. I think they are all intriguing, especially Thomas if/when he passes 500 HR's.
One player to put in the "halfway there" department would likely be Oakland's Eric Chavez. He's got 215 home runs already, and hits about 30 per year while driving in 100 runs and winning Gold Gloves at third.
This makes "Larry" all the more interesting. He's got 360+ HR's, and he's mostly been a third baseman. He'll almost certainly top 400 dingers which is rare at that position, and may work the same as 500 homers used to work for other position players. The only question would be era issues. Even for a third baseman, is 400 home runs impressive enough anymore?
For comparison, I think 400 home runs would make any catcher, second baseman, or shortstop a mortal lock, where 500 may not be enough for first basemen or outfielders.
The two best third basemen ever, Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson, hit 548 and 268 home runs respectively, but each also won 10 or more Gold Gloves (Schmidt 10, Robinson 16). Oddly enough, they both sport .267 career batting averages.
Chipper has no Gold Gloves according to ESPN.com, while Rolen has 7 and Chavez 6. In my mind, 10 Gold Gloves plus 400 home runs equals a Hall bid at third, but even Jones' MVP award can't make up for not even one GG. He's an interesting case, and if he was voted in I wouldn't be furious, especially since we don't know how Rolen and Chavez will finish their careers. Even now, 400 home runs puts a player near the top 40 all-time.
A nice rundown by Les, and in a topic that that sports columnists don't seem to want to talk about; I think that they are worried about making a bad guess, so they only talk about current players when they are "locks".
Which brings me straight to "Junior": my first quibble with the "locks". He has the same problem Pedro has: 5 or so years dominance is not enough to get into the Hall.
Jim Rice and Dwight Gooden are good examples, even if Rice may yet get in.
I think Pedro probably can make it, given a few more solid, winning years, but I am not sure about Junior at all. Even though he was "the man" for 7-8 years and he will probably make it to 600 home runs, his 21st Century bad luck really counts against him.
I would downgrade almost all of the "most likelys" to "more work needed" except for Piazza, Alex Rodriguez (barring catastrophe), Glavine and maybe Biggio (this year is starting to look very sad for him, even if I cheer for anyone approaching 3000 hits).
I agree about pretty much all of the rest, except that I think Pujols needs a few more years of sustained greatness to qualify.
I like the interesting cases, but I don't think that Big Papi or Varitek will have that much of a shot. Hall voters do seem be too statistically oriented to care much about "clutch-ness" and intangibles without impressive numbers.
I don't think that 500 home runs is going to be automatic anymore, even if the strike zone really has returned and steroids are no longer hiding behind every water cooler. Anyone think even 550 will be enough to be near automatic?
Is 300 wins too much too expect of a modern pitcher? If 20 game winners are going to become a rarity, 300 is not going to happen that often at all. I think that even now 250 should probably be near automatic (which means Mussina has a pretty good chance in my book).
and perhaps showing my team bias, I would argue for Tim Wakefield as a special case if he can pitch a few more years and get a lot closer to 200 wins.
I do think special cases should be made for players as rare as knuckleballers.
I see some of the arguments against Junior and the discussion with Chipper is interesting.
Junior seems to still be a lock to me, but I could be wrong. He was so dominating for 11 years. I think the standard is generally viewed as 10 years. He was arguably the best player in the game for 8 years, not just best at his position. He won 10 consecutive gold gloves and unlike the "other" premiere defensive centerfielder of his day sabermetric totals support all the hype surrounding his defense. (Sabermetrics make Andruw look like the most overrated defensive player of his generation). Also Junior has an MVP award and he led his league in homers on four occasions. He's still a career .291 hitter on top of all of it and approaching 2500 hits. I think he's in.
As for Larry, his early start this year brought up a discussion on Baseball Tonight which led to Tim Kurkjian saying that Larry is a Hall-no-brainer. I respect Kurkjian's opinion on the matter more than anyone's (except maybe Gammons). I still don't think he deserves in, but I am partial against the Braves.
Wakefield is a very interesting discussion. Especially considering the era he pitched in, I think it would be an uphill battle, but could become interesting. Chavez is another that is very interesting. Could be well on his way. If he batted well at the beginning of seasons I think he'd really be on his way, but he is a perenially poor starter.
I have to make one other mention. Saying that Rice and Gooden are good examples of players who had "five years of dominance" is far from true. Rice led the AL in home runs over an 11 year span, and Gooden (my personal favorite player of all time) was only at Hall level for 2 and a half years. To give this comparison to Griffey who was great for 10 or 11 years is unfair. The thing killing Rice is that he hit during an era that numbers were deflated and hence his career totals didn't look that good in comparison to other eras. With that said Griffey had a lot more influence on the AL than Rice ever did.
Couple of thoughts. I think Biggio, Alex Rodriguez, and Ivan Rodriguez could be added to the "locks" catetogy. Also, you've got Frank Thomas in could make a claim category. Along with Bagwell, he was the best first baseman of his era. I think he'll get in, and get in easy.
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